We can work on Forecasting Methods

Identify any challenges you have in setting up a time-series analysis in Excel. Explain what they are and why they are challenging. Identify resources that can help you with that.

Sample Solution

Weather and changing climate patterns affect productivity in general. Research shows that productivity starts declining strongly after peaking at an average annual temperature of about 13°C (CITE). Therefore, countries located in areas with higher temperature will face disproportionate impacts from global warming. India falls squarely into this category. Climate change models, such as those developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), predict that temperatures in India are likely to rise between 3°C and 4°C by the end of the 21st century (CITE). Much of South Asia could be too hot for people to survive, according to researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (CITE). IV. Agriculture and Heat Mortality Current and future climate implications in India are especially apparent in states and populations reliant on agriculture. The 2017-18 Economic Survey conducted by the Indian Ministry of Finance noted that climate change has already impacted farm productivity and farmers’ incomes (CITE). The effects are felt when temperatures are higher, rainfall significantly decreased, and the number of “dry days” greater than normal. Such conditions are more damaging in unirrigated lands compared to irrigated areas. Around 52% of India’s total land under agriculture is still unirrigated and remains dependent on rain. The change in agricultural productivity as a result of climate change could reduce agricultural incomes between 15% and 18%, on average, and between 20% and 25% in unirrigated areas. Between 2012 and 2017 India experienced a period of prolonged drought, with rainfall roughly 20% below average nationwide. In the nation’s agricultural areas to the west and north the situation was far worse. In Punjab, India’s “bread basket”, rainfall was 70% below average (CITE). Farmers turned to expensive, diesel-powered electric pumps to tap groundwater supplies and irrigate their crops. This caused aquifer levels to drop up to 60 meters in Punjab and nearly 200 meters in Gujarat (CITE). Millions have fled the drought, which the government said affected about 330 million people, nearly a quarter of the population (CITE). Internally-displaced populations have moved into already overcrowded cities.>

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