For this project, I have created a PowerPoint presentation to demonstrate the advantage of using Excel Solver to calculate outcomes based on a series of factors and contingencies using exponential smoothing, which is a forecasting method that uses a weighted average of past time series values as the forecast. We will discuss it in more detail in the presentation.

As you are going through this, you may think to yourself, I could calculate tis faster by hand, but first, we are looking at a very small project and second, we can easily change contingencies and new outcomes are produced in a matter of seconds.

After you complete the presentation, the assignment portion is as follows (this information is also on the last slide of the presentation so you are not seeing double):

Please refer to Chapter 15 Question 13 (page 771, your page numbers may vary slightly) but use the same instructions from question 14 (below) and submit your results as an excel file.

*Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
*Use a 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series.
*Use Excel Solver to find the value that minimizes MSE (Hint: Minimize the sum of squared error.) If you are unable to download Solver, calculate manually as you have your other problems in this chapter.

An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making, 14th Edition
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